Hindsight bias leads individuals to believe what about past events?

Hindsight bias is a cognitive phenomenon where people perceive past events as having been more predictable than they actually were. When individuals fall prey to hindsight bias, they often believe that they "knew it all along," making it seem as if the outcomes were sensible and foreseeable based on the information available at the time. This distorts the reality of decision-making processes and can lead to an exaggerated sense of clarity about how events unfolded.

In this context, believing that past events were predictable and reasonable to expect aligns perfectly with the essence of hindsight bias. It reflects the tendency to oversimplify complex situations and overlook the uncertainty that existed before the events occurred. This bias can affect various areas, including investing decisions, risk assessments, and evaluations of business outcomes, as individuals may underestimate the challenges or unpredictability involved in those scenarios.